The BREXIT fallacy?

A whole new industry seems to have born out of a referedum decision that will trigger acton over something between the next two to six years.

A quick survey of web sites, magazines and other media will soon show a wide variety of consultancies pushing expertise in BREXIT strategies. This is a great market for people who don't know what's happening, to sell to other people who don't know what's happening.

So what is BREXIT, really? In many respects, it is a classic "Black Swan" event - one of those areas that in retrospect was very likely (if you alienate enough people, for long enough, and give them a stick to beat you with...) but on the run up was seen as a foregone conclusion, and something that a fear based campaign would ensure. That didn't work so well then.

However, BREXIT is only one facet of what is going on. It may be have been dramatic, but baby BREXITS are happening each day, and the likelihood is that there will be other large, BREXIT like events before ever this BREXIT has …