The Black Swan, the Grey Rhino and the Pink Elephant.

image: Foldingpets

Right now, it's a jungle out there.

Nassim Taleb's notion of the Black Swan , those high impact, low probability events that can upend our understanding of our world rapidly became part of business folklore. From 911 to financial crashes, it also became a management "get out of jail free" card. A license for helplessness. "Nobody could have seen it coming". Not true, but convenient.

Michel Wucker added to the leadership zoo with her "Gray Rhino" metaphor, a highly probable high impact event that is in plain sight and charging towards us, that we choose to ignore. It is entering business folklore. Housing bubbles, well dressed Ponzi schemes, and more recently the pandemic. Climate Change, Biodiversity Loss and Inequality are all Gray Rhinos.

We also have of course the Pink Elephants, the rather showy, noisy, trumpeting fellow zoo inhabitant that all the visitors flock to. The highly improbable, highly attractive fantasy. Beloved of politicians and social media it comes b…