Running in the fog.

Photo by Aleksandar Pasaric on Pexels.com

Despite the protestations of those who depend on forecasting for a living, the very best of them - and there aren't many, can see no further than a year ahead with any credibility. The vast majority can do a little over three months. (If you haven't seen her talk on it, watch Margaret Heffernan) She wrote on this a few weeks before the pandemic hit, and used pandemics in her book as an example. Prescience.

The question uncertainty asks of us is how we prepare for many years of probable tumult. Our default is to believe that it won't be our business, or us that gets affected. We suffer from what MH termed "wilful blindness" in one of her previous books. The reality is that it will, indirectly or directly, and we would be better if we're both aware and ready not least because there will be as much opportunity as threat. We need to be able to recognise them both for what they are.

Conflict like this - when what we had hoped would be diverges from wh…