Evidence Based Leadership - an Oxymoron??

When things are changing around us and uncertainty has the stage by the time we have evidence, it's already happened.

When does a reliance on data and evidence become a cop out?

Very few of us would deny the value and power of data in advancing science, or the power of science to increase our knowledge. However, when we become addicted to it we lose flexibility and no longer trust intuition.

It's largely intuition we rely on for survival. We might be wrong, but that same evidence suggests that more often, we're right - or right enough - to avoid what otherise might be terminal. Heuristics and biases are real, but they have a purpose.

Judgement is hard.

The trouble with judgement is that we don't have enough evidence, we have to make a call, and we might be wrong. As Annie Duke points out in "Thinking in Bets" you never make a wrong bet, you make a bet.

It's only wrong once you have the results, and the opportunity is behind you.

I think judgement makes some harsh demands on us.

• What is the ju…